Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3995 at 09:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3995 BUR 09:28 → PHX 10:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6246 BUR 17:00 → PHX 18:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3995 Southwest	BUR 09:28	PHX 10:53	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2417 Southwest	BUR 00:22	PHX 01:40	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2076 Southwest	BUR 11:15	PHX 12:48	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4220 Envoy	BUR 10:09	PHX 11:41	9%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 2012 Southwest	BUR 13:57	PHX 15:24	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 824 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:03	PHX 18:44	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 826 Southwest	BUR 19:58	PHX 21:25	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	BUR 17:00	PHX 18:43	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON