Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2922 at 17:16 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2922 BUR 17:16 → SFO 18:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2780 BUR 08:21 → SFO 09:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2922 Southwest	BUR 17:16	SFO 18:35	15%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:22	SFO 17:51	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2776 Southwest	BUR 13:53	SFO 15:13	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:00	SFO 08:28	17%	6%	0.9%	80%
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	17%	6%	0.9%	41%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	19%	6%	0.9%	66%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	23%	8%	0.9%	52%
OO 4798 SkyWest	BUR 09:33	SFO 11:24	25%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 2780 Southwest	BUR 08:21	SFO 09:38	28%	6%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON