Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2567 BUR 07:19 → SMF 08:47 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2435 BUR 16:07 → SMF 17:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2567 Southwest	BUR 07:19	SMF 08:47	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2191 Southwest	BUR 09:18	SMF 10:45	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2297 Southwest	BUR 10:40	SMF 12:08	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2256 Southwest	BUR 19:06	SMF 20:30	7%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 419 Southwest	BUR 14:19	SMF 15:45	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1185 Southwest	BUR 17:50	SMF 19:15	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest	BUR 16:07	SMF 17:29	9%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON