Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3121 BUR 11:11 → STS 12:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3401 BUR 07:33 → STS 08:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3121 Southwest	BUR 11:11	STS 12:40	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
OO 3419 SkyWest	BUR 15:18	STS 16:53	13%	6%	1.2%	no record
AS 3401 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 07:33	STS 08:54	16%	4%	1.6%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON