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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 193 at 12:03, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 193 Southwest BWI 12:03 ABQ 14:06 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 2h 52m Denver DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:54UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 8h 31m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:47 → DEN 11:28WN 938 3h 15m Denver DEN 14:43 → ABQ 16:05WN 983 8h 18m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:57 → ABQ 15:26UA 1594 8h 56m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:14UA 1898 1h 46m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 7h 26m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 32m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:08 → DEN 18:01WN 937 2h 59m Denver DEN 21:00 → ABQ 22:19WN 123 8h 11m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:41 → ABQ 13:41AA 1761 8h 11m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON