Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2950 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 2950 BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4427 BWI 10:10 → ATL 12:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2950 Delta Flight history →	BWI 05:40	ATL 07:31	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1967 Southwest	BWI 08:12	ATL 10:05	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2562 Delta Flight history →	BWI 08:17	ATL 10:10	5%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	BWI 10:33	ATL 12:24	5%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:52	ATL 13:41	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2579 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:00	ATL 08:52	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	BWI 14:08	ATL 16:05	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:00	ATL 19:08	6%	2%	0.5%	78%
WN 866 Southwest	BWI 11:21	ATL 13:11	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3988 Southwest	BWI 17:54	ATL 19:51	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1441 Southwest	BWI 14:52	ATL 16:42	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 4537 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:20	ATL 23:32	12%	6%	0.8%	61%
F9 2633 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:35	ATL 09:00	13%	5%	0.8%	77%
F9 4427 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:10	ATL 12:22	14%	5%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON