tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 428 Southwest BWI 09:56 BHM 11:05 8% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3993 Southwest BWI 15:38 BHM 16:34 12% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 6h 30m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 6h 07m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 5h 30m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034 7h 02m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 5h 37m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:54 → BNA 07:44WN 879 2h 42m Nashville BNA 10:26 → BHM 11:26WN 816 5h 32m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 3h 57m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:19 → BHM 19:22DL 3044 6h 14m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON