Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 879 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 879 BWI 06:54 → BNA 07:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest WN 737 BWI 19:06 → BNA 19:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:54	BNA 07:44	3%	1%	0.2%	64%
WN 1769 Southwest	BWI 07:33	BNA 08:29	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	BWI 09:28	BNA 10:22	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 882 Southwest	BWI 09:35	BNA 10:23	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4738 Southwest	BWI 11:07	BNA 12:01	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 458 Southwest	BWI 12:07	BNA 12:55	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4883 Southwest	BWI 15:38	BNA 16:32	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
SY 3064 Sun Country	BWI 21:32	BNA 22:21	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 960 Southwest	BWI 18:03	BNA 18:57	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 737 Southwest	BWI 19:06	BNA 19:51	17%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON