Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5703 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5703 BWI 09:00 → BOS 10:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 352 BWI 15:33 → BOS 17:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 09:00	BOS 10:38	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 362 Southwest	BWI 08:02	BOS 09:37	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4382 Southwest	BWI 08:20	BOS 09:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 13:45	BOS 15:23	6%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 18:22	BOS 20:07	8%	3%	0.7%	67%
DL 5813 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 06:21	BOS 08:00	8%	3%	0.5%	97%
WN 2088 Southwest	BWI 10:50	BOS 12:21	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3994 Southwest	BWI 06:47	BOS 08:08	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4970 Southwest	BWI 07:10	BOS 08:41	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1450 Southwest	BWI 11:16	BOS 12:42	13%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4431 Southwest	BWI 21:24	BOS 23:00	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2318 Southwest	BWI 13:20	BOS 14:51	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1562 Southwest	BWI 13:33	BOS 14:58	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 803 Southwest	BWI 14:30	BOS 16:01	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 884 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:28	BOS 16:59	19%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1222 Southwest	BWI 19:01	BOS 20:38	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 352 Southwest	BWI 15:33	BOS 17:03	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON