Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1708 BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3121 BWI 19:41 → CLT 21:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:02	CLT 06:26	2%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4015 Southwest	BWI 08:27	CLT 10:17	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 07:36	CLT 09:11	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 1216 American	BWI 10:21	CLT 11:52	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1531 American	BWI 15:12	CLT 16:42	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 319 Southwest	BWI 18:49	CLT 20:11	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3121 American	BWI 19:41	CLT 21:15	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON