Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 934 BWI 06:36 → DEN 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 937 BWI 16:08 → DEN 18:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 934 Southwest	BWI 06:36	DEN 08:18	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4894 Southwest	BWI 11:10	DEN 12:50	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 938 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:47	DEN 11:28	7%	1%	0.5%	65%
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	8%	2%	0.5%	90%
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	9%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 4122 Southwest	BWI 14:18	DEN 16:02	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 939 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:55	DEN 18:55	10%	2%	0.6%	56%
WN 937 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:08	DEN 18:01	11%	2%	0.5%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON