Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1403 BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2669 BWI 15:48 → DFW 17:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:34	DFW 14:47	13%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 2669 American	BWI 15:48	DFW 17:57	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON