Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2601 BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4999 BWI 19:44 → DTW 21:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2601 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:08	DTW 07:39	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	BWI 09:39	DTW 11:07	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	BWI 12:33	DTW 14:07	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:27	DTW 19:09	6%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 1359 Southwest	BWI 10:49	DTW 12:13	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4999 Southwest	BWI 19:44	DTW 21:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON