Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895	6h 36m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 41m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	5h 58m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 16m	100%	86%
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606	7h 23m	100%	86%
United Details →	BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:13UA 1898	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402	8h 28m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON