Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 942 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 942 BWI 08:32 → FLL 11:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4411 BWI 15:14 → FLL 17:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 942 Southwest	BWI 08:32	FLL 11:23	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1193 Southwest	BWI 12:57	FLL 15:41	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1500 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:23	FLL 18:01	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	15%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 17:16	FLL 19:57	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	16%	8%	0.9%	57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:14	FLL 17:55	25%	6%	2.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON