Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1898 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1898 BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 05:59	IAH 08:13	3%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 1911 United	BWI 14:56	IAH 17:36	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	19%	5%	0.9%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	55m Atlanta	ATL 14:36 → IAH 15:40DL 1223	4h 48m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON