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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 50m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Boston BOS 11:26 → JFK 12:41DL 9966 6h 20m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 20m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 12m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 21m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 08:37 → JFK 10:33AA 365 5h 31m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546 2h 11m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 5h 56m 98% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON