Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 968 BWI 06:32 → LAS 08:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 147 BWI 18:06 → LAS 20:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 968 Southwest	BWI 06:32	LAS 08:37	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 969 Southwest	BWI 10:17	LAS 12:22	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	BWI 18:06	LAS 20:10	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 11m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 04m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	6h 49m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON