Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1003 BWI 09:07 → LAX 11:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4698 BWI 20:09 → LAX 22:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 09:07	LAX 11:36	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:55	LAX 10:42	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 489 Southwest	BWI 16:04	LAX 18:25	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4698 Southwest	BWI 20:09	LAX 22:38	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 56m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	8h 00m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON