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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 4h 00m Boston BOS 12:00 → LGA 13:21DL 5854 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:54 → BNA 07:44WN 879 2h 04m Nashville BNA 09:48 → LGA 13:15WN 551 6h 21m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 6h 13m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 7h 02m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 26m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 42m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 7h 33m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 6h 24m 97% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON