Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 980 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 980 BWI 06:32 → MCO 08:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2309 BWI 15:08 → MCO 17:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 980 Southwest	BWI 06:32	MCO 08:44	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4914 Southwest	BWI 08:27	MCO 10:59	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 547 Southwest	BWI 09:29	MCO 11:45	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3302 Southwest	BWI 10:50	MCO 13:02	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1256 Southwest	BWI 12:22	MCO 14:36	12%	3%	2.2%	no record
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:14	MCO 11:54	13%	3%	2.1%	72%
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:48	MCO 16:02	15%	5%	2.7%	61%
WN 4748 Southwest	BWI 17:32	MCO 19:47	16%	5%	5.1%	no record
WN 3435 Southwest	BWI 18:49	MCO 21:04	20%	6%	4.4%	no record
WN 3221 Southwest	BWI 16:23	MCO 18:41	23%	6%	3.6%	no record
F9 2309 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:08	MCO 17:35	30%	9%	7.0%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON