Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 4219 BWI 17:10 → MIA 20:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 180 Southwest	BWI 08:12	MIA 11:02	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1399 Delta	BWI 09:51	MIA 12:49	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1653 Southwest	BWI 11:02	MIA 14:03	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1010 American	BWI 13:54	MIA 16:47	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 17:22	MIA 19:59	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	BWI 17:10	MIA 20:02	25%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON