Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2872 BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1008 BWI 16:31 → MSP 18:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2872 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:20	MSP 07:54	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MSP 13:11	5%	2%	0.5%	78%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	BWI 19:10	MSP 21:00	7%	3%	0.5%	71%
WN 1665 Southwest	BWI 11:57	MSP 13:32	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1008 Southwest	BWI 16:31	MSP 18:06	10%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON