tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 598 Southwest BWI 10:23 MSY 11:56 9% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1010 Southwest BWI 18:06 MSY 19:41 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:58 → MSY 09:29DL 1424 4h 49m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 37m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:13UA 1898 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 8h 15m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 3h 20m Boston BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398 8h 35m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 00m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 01m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790 5h 06m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 24m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:36 → CLT 09:11AA 2670 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23AA 2030 5h 47m 97% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON