Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	93%	89%
Southwest Details →	BWI 16:08 → DEN 18:01WN 937	3h 10m Denver	DEN 21:11 → OAK 22:37WN 168	9h 29m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:47 → DEN 11:28WN 938	1h 01m Denver	DEN 12:29 → OAK 13:57WN 1583	7h 10m	93%	78%
Alaska Details →	BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533	10h 16m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON