tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:46 → ONT 12:46DL 2743 8h 31m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 58m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 92% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → ONT 13:30AA 2635 9h 00m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891 9h 33m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:08 → DEN 18:01WN 937 2h 53m Denver DEN 20:54 → ONT 22:16WN 141 9h 08m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → BWI 12:00 → DFW 14:35AA 2314 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → ONT 19:04AA 3006 10h 04m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 19m 89% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON