tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 653 Alaska BWI 16:31 PDX 19:12 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4248 Southwest BWI 08:12 PDX 10:49 7% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 9h 20m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 00m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 10h 18m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 02m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 9h 43m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 28m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 04m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:14UA 1898 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 57m 98% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON