Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 304 BWI 08:32 → PHX 10:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 156 BWI 17:58 → PHX 20:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 304 Southwest	BWI 08:32	PHX 10:31	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 344 Southwest	BWI 16:09	PHX 17:50	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1040 Southwest	BWI 10:31	PHX 12:10	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 156 Southwest	BWI 17:58	PHX 20:11	9%	3%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 45m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 46m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON