Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1144 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1144 BWI 08:17 → RSW 11:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1707 BWI 17:27 → RSW 20:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1144 Southwest	BWI 08:17	RSW 11:04	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1066 Southwest	BWI 08:12	RSW 10:58	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1707 Southwest	BWI 17:27	RSW 20:07	19%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON