Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4817 BWI 09:18 → SAN 11:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1076 BWI 17:23 → SAN 19:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4817 Southwest	BWI 09:18	SAN 11:42	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest	BWI 14:16	SAN 16:42	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1076 Southwest	BWI 17:23	SAN 19:48	18%	2%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761	7h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON