tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3523 Southwest BWI 10:51 SDF 12:32 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 439 Southwest BWI 19:53 SDF 21:31 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:54 → BNA 07:44WN 879 2h 27m Nashville BNA 10:11 → SDF 12:08WN 3960 5h 14m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 11m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 7h 26m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:36 → CLT 09:11AA 2670 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SDF 13:57AA 2816 6h 21m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 5h 57m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 20:03 → SDF 21:32DL 2842 7h 24m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 96% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON