Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1087 BWI 10:14 → SEA 12:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 379 BWI 18:07 → SEA 21:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1087 Southwest	BWI 10:14	SEA 12:44	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 786 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 07:03	SEA 09:53	16%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 379 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 18:07	SEA 21:00	16%	3%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 19:10 → MSP 21:00DL 2565	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 48m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	7h 50m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON