Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:00	SFO 10:50	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 122 Southwest	BWI 08:55	SFO 11:35	10%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 49m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	9h 52m	100%	90%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:26 → SFO 11:01AA 2758	8h 59m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 40m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → SFO 15:48DL 823	10h 31m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656	10h 04m	99%	87%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	9h 39m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON