tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4375 Southwest BWI 15:58 SJC 18:40 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 50m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 41m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 49m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 9h 27m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 09m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256 7h 37m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:47 → DEN 11:28WN 938 2h 23m Denver DEN 13:51 → SJC 15:25WN 459 8h 38m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012 1h 12m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 7h 46m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON