Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 441 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 441 BWI 08:27 → SJU 12:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2266 BWI 21:18 → SJU 01:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 441 Southwest	BWI 08:27	SJU 12:58	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1090 Southwest	BWI 17:57	SJU 22:13	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2266 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:18	SJU 01:34	23%	8%	1.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON