Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1176 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:15	SLC 09:50	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 1313 Southwest	BWI 09:42	SLC 12:22	7%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 30m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	6h 41m	98%	91%
United Details →	BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:13UA 1898	1h 41m Houston	IAH 09:54 → SLC 12:26UA 2242	8h 27m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	9h 01m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	6h 32m	97%	90%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 21m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON