tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 455 Southwest BWI 08:27 SMF 11:13 5% 1% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 9h 40m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:14UA 1898 1h 51m Houston IAH 10:05 → SMF 12:01UA 1155 9h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 8h 53m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078 9h 11m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:47 → DEN 11:28WN 938 3h 38m Denver DEN 15:06 → SMF 16:32WN 4825 9h 45m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON