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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 10h 08m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 46m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 7h 57m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 27m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:14UA 1898 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 8h 00m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:47 → DEN 11:28WN 938 1h 36m Denver DEN 13:04 → SNA 14:28WN 1691 7h 41m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 51m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 08m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:08 → DEN 18:01WN 937 1h 55m Denver DEN 19:56 → SNA 21:15WN 296 8h 07m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 47m 75% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON