Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 606 at 18:16, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 606 Southwest	BWI 18:16	TYS 19:49	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 09:09 → TYS 10:45DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor	4h 37m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:54 → BNA 07:44WN 879	2h 32m Nashville	BNA 10:16 → TYS 12:16WN 747	5h 22m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 31m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → TYS 20:02DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	5h 54m	99%	90%
American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → TYS 11:57AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont	5h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	5h 24m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:09 → TYS 21:43DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 16m	93%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON