Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 406 at 17:56, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	BZN 17:56	ATL 23:53	9%	3%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	6h 39m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:12 → ATL 14:46DL 9960	6h 46m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	7h 44m	99%	90%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 44m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:20UA 2806	6h 50m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026	6h 33m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	7h 12m	98%	87%
American Details →	BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → ATL 15:36AA 1008	7h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	6h 53m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON