Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2035 American	BZN 14:19	CLT 20:20	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	5h 57m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 49m	99%	91%
American Details →	BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	6h 32m	97%	85%
American Details →	BZN 13:55 → ORD 17:53AA 1501	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	8h 04m	98%	85%
American Details →	BZN 11:53 → DFW 15:53AA 952	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → CLT 22:20AA 3002	8h 27m	99%	82%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 25m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	6h 42m	95%	81%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	6h 41m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON