Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1109 BZN 08:55 → DEN 11:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4622 BZN 15:50 → DEN 17:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1109 Southwest	BZN 08:55	DEN 11:00	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	3%	2%	0.5%	97%
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:44	DEN 12:54	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 398 Southwest	BZN 11:21	DEN 12:57	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	8%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 1110 Southwest	BZN 13:58	DEN 15:37	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	BZN 16:27	DEN 18:34	9%	3%	0.5%	65%
WN 4622 Southwest	BZN 15:50	DEN 17:25	11%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON