Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via O'Hare, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 348 United Flight history →	BZN 11:38	EWR 18:00	16%	5%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	8h 01m	99%	89%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	11h 34m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	8h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	9h 34m	100%	87%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 34m Denver	DEN 09:58 → EWR 15:59UA 2381	7h 29m	97%	85%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	8h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → EWR 16:32AA 813	8h 02m	99%	81%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 30m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	7h 18m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON