Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1928 at 06:56, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1928 Southwest	BZN 06:56	LAS 08:22	2%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50DL 1698	4h 35m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	7h 26m	98%	92%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 19:10 → LAS 20:29DL 2246	7h 34m	98%	89%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	7h 53m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:53 → SEA 17:09DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	8h 17m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 12:29 → LAS 14:54DL 2880	7h 29m	98%	85%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655	6h 42m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON