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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5222 SkyWest BZN 13:33 LAX 15:38 6% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 23m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 6h 19m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 04m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 5h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:55UA 1079 7h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 5h 23m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:07 → LAX 14:11AA 1275 8h 41m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122 7h 56m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 05m 73% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON