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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 8h 49m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → BZN 11:53 → DFW 15:53AA 952 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:07 → LGA 23:56AA 1375 10h 03m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:44 → LGA 16:22AA 2327 7h 52m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 04m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 07m Chicago ORD 20:04 → LGA 23:23UA 2827 8h 35m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:55 → ORD 17:53AA 1501 2h 03m Chicago ORD 19:56 → LGA 23:12AA 1166 7h 17m 93% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON