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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via O'Hare, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:38 EWR 18:00 16% 5% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 9h 32m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 34m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:30 → DFW 10:38AA 817 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:09 → JFK 17:43AA 1058 9h 13m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 34m Denver DEN 09:58 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 7h 29m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → BZN 11:53 → DFW 15:53AA 952 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → JFK 00:01 +1AA 1248 10h 08m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 8h 51m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON