Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1069 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1069 BZN 08:07 → ORD 11:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1501 BZN 13:55 → ORD 17:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1069 United	BZN 08:07	ORD 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BZN 13:55	ORD 17:53	19%	5%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON