tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 350 at 16:05, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 350 Alaska BZN 16:05 PDX 16:23 11% 4% 1.2% no record
AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 16:04 PDX 16:50 16% 5% 2.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 7h 40m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37DL 1203 4h 22m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 5h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 7h 20m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 4h 56m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:53 → SEA 17:09DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 20:16 → PDX 21:38DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 20:51 → PDX 22:49UA 2413 7h 32m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON