tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 13:50 SAN 15:34 33% 4% 0.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41DL 1177 4h 26m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 24m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 5h 20m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 21:03 → SAN 22:49UA 442 7h 32m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:53 → SEA 17:09DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Seattle SEA 19:40 → SAN 22:34DL 2672 7h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:55 → MSP 17:21DL 2946 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 7h 40m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 53m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 11m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon 1h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:17 → SAN 22:49AS 3306 · flown by SkyWest 5h 58m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON